Submitted by Test19s t3_120qgkr in Futurology
Trade, at least between different continents and countries with vastly different cultures and regimes, I see as having more or less maxed out relative to GDP. The reasons mainly have to do with the issues in maintaining supply chains that run across continents as well as the willingness of regimes to interfere with the internal affairs of their partners. I don’t see a mass reversal of globalization but I don’t see it expanding much until we have fully automated supply chains.
Tourism, due to its climate impacts, Airbnb distortion of housing markets, and public health concerns, is an area where I could see a significant rollback. Especially if virtual destinations become attractive thanks to VR.
Immigration imo has very powerful forces pushing in either direction. On the pro-immigration side, there are emerging population shortages as well as a likelihood of significant climate migration from tropical and low-lying countries into cooler and more mountainous ones. On the other side, though, I’m seeing a lot of concerns about scarce resources within countries (housing obviously, but everything from food to healthcare to minerals to fresh water is limited unless you want to turn the planet into Coruscant) as well as concerns (possibly spouted by bad actors that want to divide multi continental and immigrant societies) about how many people there are in the developing world who can fully contribute to Western democracies without importing poverty, social problems, or ethnic/national tensions.
[deleted] t1_jdilaev wrote
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