Submitted by Test19s t3_120qgkr in Futurology
Trade, at least between different continents and countries with vastly different cultures and regimes, I see as having more or less maxed out relative to GDP. The reasons mainly have to do with the issues in maintaining supply chains that run across continents as well as the willingness of regimes to interfere with the internal affairs of their partners. I don’t see a mass reversal of globalization but I don’t see it expanding much until we have fully automated supply chains.
Tourism, due to its climate impacts, Airbnb distortion of housing markets, and public health concerns, is an area where I could see a significant rollback. Especially if virtual destinations become attractive thanks to VR.
Immigration imo has very powerful forces pushing in either direction. On the pro-immigration side, there are emerging population shortages as well as a likelihood of significant climate migration from tropical and low-lying countries into cooler and more mountainous ones. On the other side, though, I’m seeing a lot of concerns about scarce resources within countries (housing obviously, but everything from food to healthcare to minerals to fresh water is limited unless you want to turn the planet into Coruscant) as well as concerns (possibly spouted by bad actors that want to divide multi continental and immigrant societies) about how many people there are in the developing world who can fully contribute to Western democracies without importing poverty, social problems, or ethnic/national tensions.
Shalrak t1_jdkekg8 wrote
Right now, we see an increasing amount of tourists choose neighboring countries, or even their own country, rather than warmer destinations. This means that destinations like Scandinavia houses more guests than they have in the last 15 years, right now. Particularly rented holiday houses and camping is booming, while hotels can't quite keep up.
Meanwhile, typical destination like southern Europe who have build an economy based on massive tourism, will struggle immensely.
As we become more environmentally aware, I don't think plane travel will be as dominant as it has in the past, not even for those who could still afford it.
Many have learned just how much local countries has to offer. When the recession turns around in this decade, I think many tourists will return to southern destinations, but not like it used to be.
We've changed how we are tourists for good.
We also see a massive trend that tourists seek out "real" experiences, rather than "touristy" attractions. Big all-inclusive hotels on the beach will decline. Tourism is developing to coexist with local customs, rather than define them. Cities like Barcelona has been destroyed by tourism, and it's a massive focus in the industry to change that. This will take more than a decade, but that's the direction were going, at least in Northern Europe.
VR is not an alternative to a holiday. I don't see it having any significant inpact on tourism in the coming decate, but if anything, I think showcasing destinations in VR will increase interest in travel.