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buried_lede OP t1_iyb45jl wrote

Reply to comment by yodamonkey1 in Wholesale price of gas paid by power plants by buried_lede

The chart I linked is problematic. I noticed it is focused on the summer months when peak power is an issue in most places. I’ll look for other data.

I kind of doubt it is the highest wholesale price in the country tho. Anyway, I’ll look for the data.

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yodamonkey1 t1_iyb52bf wrote

It is the highest. Search for ALG. The prices are in $/mmbtu

https://www.theice.com/marketdata/reports/142

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buried_lede OP t1_iyb6ax0 wrote

Ok, skimmed one of the Alg futures lists. The power plants won’t be paying that, fyi, but I want to look at those some more.

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yodamonkey1 t1_iyb6o65 wrote

Sure they do. Look at the Nepool power prices…product code NEP on that report.

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buried_lede OP t1_iycaqlb wrote

How much pure speculation do you think is involved in some of those futures prices?

What if we called their bluff? Is New England a big enough market to ripple back to the well head and get a redo?

It works when there is a Covid lock down in China and factories slow down. If there is a good amount of pure speculative bullshit in the prices, there is a certain amount of wiggle room. Why can’t we squeeze their margins?

(They’re probably trading their own futures. Shell Oil does that- it has a large energy trading unit)

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yodamonkey1 t1_iycp8mq wrote

We are severely constrained in terms of getting molecules to be sent our way. Our power grid is heavily reliant on natural gas. We have to compete with Europe who is paying a premium for LNG shipments. The risk is Europe and NE get cold and LNG prices double to hit their European price cap. Double those ICE prices I sent and you can see we are in quite a pickle. There are no bluffs you can call unless you can convince people to not run their boilers/heaters/lights during the winter.

As for residential vs power plant price differences, the base price is generally what you see on ice +/- whatever adders the local distribution companies might charge.

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buried_lede OP t1_iydh5q9 wrote

I’m half kidding, but otherwise, Hm. We know all that, we know a lot of that needs to be checked and we know we need to know a lot more about power pricing in this state and ISO than we do. There was a study that concluded a few years ago that prices in this ISO could not be entirely explained by the reasons we’ve been given for years. You know at least one of the companies that owns a power plant in CT has pipeline and natural gas interests too, it’s a subsidiary. There is a lot more to know.

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buried_lede OP t1_iyb5dke wrote

Look at this one where the city gate price is $14+and the price for power plants is $8+

I’ll look for another data set

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_pri_sum_dcu_SCT_m.htm

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yodamonkey1 t1_iyb7r1z wrote

I know we don’t want to admit defeat as nutmeggers but we are hosed when it comes to power and gas supply in the winter. Our summer prices are nothing special compared to Texas, but the Nepool winter future contract prices are 3x higher than ercot summer.

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